Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych

Zeszyt 29/2013

Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych oświadcza, że wersją pierwotną czasopisma jest wersja papierowa.

Jerzy Bertrandt, Arkadiusz Netczuk, Tadeusz Nowicki, Tomasz Tarnawski

Modelowanie, symulacja i analiza procesu rozwoju epidemii chorób przenoszonych drogą pokarmową

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Modeling, simulation and analysis of food-borne epidemic spreed processes

Abstract
The paper presents a simulation model of epidemic development of food-borne diseases. Contaminated substances of pathogens may be food or water. Model of epidemic spread is a developed model of food-borne disease epidemic process. The model is built on the basis of cellular automata model with a modification concerning territorial characteristics, random nature of many parameters and the impact of an activity of personal and financial investment on selected model elements. This model takes into account both the size of the population in a given area as well as its distribution. In this case some mechanism of stepwise simulation was used with the possibility of countermeasures as disease activities during epidemic spread. Simulation experiments can give many interesting, from a practical point of view, characteristics describing development of the epidemic spread. Results of this work may be used by government for planning countermeasures connected with food-borne epidemic spread.

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