Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 
Title: The Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks: Evidence from a Bayesian SVAR Model With Uncertain Identifying Assumptions
Author-Name: Anna Sznajderska 
Author-Name: Karol Szafranek 
Author-Name: Alfred Haug 
Abstract: We explore the effects of fiscal policy shocks on aggregate output and inflation. We use the novel Bayesian econometric methodology of Baumeister and Hamilton applied to the fiscal structural vector autoregressive model to evaluate key elasticities and fiscal multipliers using U.S. data from 1947Q1 to 2023Q4. In our baseline specification, the government spending multiplier is equal to approximately 1.1 and tax multiplier is approximately -1.4 after one year. The short-term output elasticity of government spending is slightly negative and the output elasticity of taxes is approximately equal to 2.6.
Number: 2024-102
Length: 37 pages 
Creation-Date: 2024-11
Keywords: Fiscal policy, structural VAR, Bayesian inference, impulse-response functions
Classification-JEL: C11, C32, E62, E63, H50
File-URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1306
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.33119/kaewps2024102
Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2024102