Zeszyt 34/2014

Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych oświadcza, że wersją pierwotną czasopisma jest wersja papierowa.

Piotr Roszkowski, Kamila Sławińska, Andrzej Torój


BEER tastes better in a panel of neighbours. On equilibrium exchange rates in CEE countries

We follow the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to estimate the misalignments of real exchange rates in selected Central European countries, including Poland, in a sample that covers both pre- and post-crisis period. We add to the existing literature by applying a panel approach with FM‐OLS estimator of the cointegrating relationship that represents the BEER equation. In our quarterly sample, comprising the years 2000-2013 for Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania, the parameters of real interest rate disparity, risk premium, Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect and terms of trade take the expected sign. These estimates seem to be more precise and robust to post-crisis instability than those obtained on the basis of time series approach, at least for Poland.

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