Zeszyt 26/2012

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Agnieszka Kukułka, Dawid Piątek, Katarzyna Szarzec

Modelowanie wzrostu gospodarczego w krajach transformujących się przy użyciu modeli panelowych

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The modeling of economic growth in transition countries using panel data estimation

Abstract
The study examines the determinants of economic growth and recovering from the transitional recession in the post-socialist countries. Whereas the various determinants of economic growth during the transition period are widely discussed in the literature separately, this study takes into consideration all of them simultaneously using the longest possible data set. The influences of initial conditions, macroeconomic stabilization, market reforms and institutions are investigated using yearly data for 25 countries beginning with the year of transition for a given country. A panel data model is employed to estimate the significance and influence of various determinants of GDP growth using GMM methodology. Results show that institutions have an impact on growth in transition and macroeconomic stabilization is a prerequisite for a positive growth rate of GDP. The initial conditions and market reforms are also important although “large” scale privatization has a negative impact on the rate of growth.

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